Imagine 2010 (2): Investment in structural overheated upstream capacity will still be insufficient

The rationality of the investment direction of all parties in 2009 is a big controversy in the industry. Are these investments overheated and will have much impact on the future of the industry? The results of the online voting show that most people believe that with the influx of capital, the LED industry will highlight the overheated structural investment.

With the large increase in domestic MOCVD, in the face of huge downstream market demand, 50% of respondents believe that insufficient capacity will still be a problem that plagued the industry in 2010.

In the interview, experts believe that the LED industry in 2009 is indeed very hot, attracting a large number of domestic and foreign investment, but these investments are not overheated, can not be said in one word, only consider the two factors of production capacity and market demand. Judging whether the investment is overheated can only be said to be a structural overheating. The development of an industry must go through the process of cognition, recognition, and rapid development. Now the LED industry has reached a stage of rapid development, so the investment fever is a normal situation for the rapid development of the industry. If there is not a lot of money to enter, it is hard to imagine a The industry can achieve rapid and large development.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the middle and upper reaches of the LED industry itself are capital-intensive, and the demand for funds is large. Recently, the scale of investment has been announced to be relatively large. However, the current situation is that many of the announced investments are still intentional, and they have not really invested in them. They still do not see overheating. Many respondents believe that the construction of new equipment and projects will take some time, and the current application demand is very large, and there will be no overcapacity in the short term. For 2010, the upstream is still undercapacity, and this shortage may continue until next year. This is because, on the one hand, from the perspective of supply, last year and this year, the growth is rapid, the investment increase may be faster. On the other hand, benefiting from the improvement of technology, the product cost has been reduced, and the market has been further expanded. Upstream demand will continue to increase. At present, the scale of upstream enterprises in China is generally small, and the supply of chip products in the market is insufficient. The phenomenon of stamping orders for customers is very common. Therefore, in the upstream epitaxial chip link, the relationship between production capacity and market demand is in short supply, and there is no overheating of investment.

In the midstream package, mid-to-high-end packaging products (such as high-power devices and chip devices) are affected by high technology and investment thresholds, and the domestic self-sufficiency rate is very low, while low-end package products (such as in-line devices) are basically It can meet the needs of domestic application fields, and there is basically no overheating of investment. In the downstream application, different application areas show different characteristics, and some areas temporarily have structural investment overheating. Some experts in the interview also expressed similar concerns. They believe that there are many downstream application products companies, and there has been a problem of excessive competition. Now there are still capitals entering. It is possible to increase hundreds of enterprises in 2010, which may cause market confusion. The situation of vicious competition has emerged.

Experts in the interview also reminded that investment is not only the demand of the market, but also the corresponding human and material resources to match it. The technology guarantees it, and investors need to do a comprehensive analysis. At present, the middle and upper reaches of the domestic enterprises are generally increasing their production capacity. Coupled with huge investment, the production capacity will increase substantially. Before the new application market has not been fully opened, the problem of overcapacity must exist.

In short, emerging industries are in the ascendant, LED self-technology is also in urgent need of improvement, coupled with the industry is still growing, the downstream application market is developing rapidly, and whether the supply of manufacturers can match the market demand is a concern of everyone. Therefore, as the beginning of the industrial chain, the upstream industry controls the core technology, the profits are relatively rich, the competition is moderate, and even if there are high technical and financial barriers, it is also favored by many investors. However, upstream development is often subject to downstream constraints. For example, the downstream demand for heating and cooling and the expansion of its own capacity will cause certain uncertainties and even risks in upstream investment and production capacity. Therefore, reasonable investment and matching capacity for the middle and upper reaches are industries. One of the main points of benign development.

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